2022 PCB Market Challenge

With an in -depth understanding of the PCB business and technology, the PRISMARK Partners managing partner Dr. Jiang Xu Gao analyzed the challenge of the PCB market in 2022 from a global perspective. On June 14, his speech at the EIPC summer seminar held in Sweden Orebro was eagerly anticipated by the audience, and they longed for the new information and new perspectives he brought. It can be seen from his speech that 2022 will be a year of attention, and it seems not friendly to the PCB industry.

In the speech of the "EIPC Technology Overview Network Symposium" in February this year, Dr. Jiang introduced that in 2021, the PCB market is characterized by the surge in revenue and profits of the packaging board, but strong demand, high material cost, supply logistics interruption, inventory inventory Increasing and cash flow squeezing the profit margins of most PCB manufacturers. Other issues that affect the market in 2021 include the supply of PCB raw materials and production capacity restrictions, currency exchange rates, long time of delivery of key processing equipment, and supply shortage of certain semiconductor and other equipment.

In this speech, he reviewed the industry development of the first quarter of 2022. He said: "The electronics industry is in the post -historic cycle caused by the 2019 epidemic, and the market is changing, and there is no dispersion banquet in the world." With the end of the synchronization needs of personal computers, televisions, and game consoles, the epidemic situation The dividend evaporates quickly, and the growth of 5G of smartphones is weakening. "In case" due to the uncertainty of the supply chain is disappearing, the expansion of the demand is disappearing, and it is also accompanied by the end of repeated placing orders and the digestion of high inventory.

The current forecast is moderate growth. It is necessary to consider factors such as inflation, high interest rates, strong US dollars, Russia -Ukraine conflicts, and China's clearing outbreak policies. Dr. Jiang summarized the main challenges facing the electronics industry:

· High inventory in the supply chain

· The decline in purchasing power leads to weak demand

· High inflation and high interest rate

· Rigid and deflection PCB supply is too required

· Geographic conflict leads to high energy costs

· Epidemic blockade leads to the interruption of suppliers production and logistics

· Artificial shortage and material cost fluctuations

He believes that the strongest growth areas are products that have the longest delivery time or are undergoing transformation, such as industrial and medical, automobiles, computing and communication infrastructure, and other consumer electronics products, especially wearable devices.

Looking forward to the long -term development of the PCB market value and product structure, he predicts that the average annual growth rate of a compound annual growth rate of 4.6%during 2021 ~ 2026 is expected to exceed $ 100 billion in 2026. Among them Essence

Who received a high profit in 2021? Among the top 30 PCB companies in the world, 16 profit margins have exceeded 10%, most of which are Taiwanese companies in China. Who invested? In most cases, these companies are also more than $ 200 million in capital expenditures.

Looking back at the geopolitical trends in the past 20 years, Dr. Jiang pointed out that China has become the main manufacturing base of PCB, and the Americas, Europe and Japan have become niche products or small -batch products. Taiwan and South Korea focus on the development of high -level technology, and Southeast Asia has become a favorable investment point for Japanese and Korean companies. Whether trade, politics, environment and labor costs will change the pattern of the PCB industry again, it remains to be observed.

Looking at the PCB market opportunities in 2022, he believes that under the BGA high -end deflection board and system -level packaging and module carrier -driven drive, the carrier market is undergoing continuous growth, and the output value is expected to increase by about 14%in 2022. Although the weak smartphone market may hinder the development of HDI, more non -consumer applications such as cars, high -performance computers, high -speed networks and satellite communication will require HDI products. The faster infrastructure data rate will require higher -level low -loss multi -layer PCB. The automotive market will require more reliable high -current and high heat dissipation PCB, and rigid PCB orders for consumer and PC applications will be reduced. Due to the transfer of 2021, the performance of the first quarter of 2022 performed strongly.

The PCB industry was relatively weak in the second quarter, especially in Asia, the reason is as follows:

· Shanghai blockade

The impact on the automobile manufacturing industry

The impact of Russia and Ukraine's conflict on European manufacturing

The demand for personal computers and graphics cards quickly decreases

· Consumer demand decreases rapidly, the mobile phone market declines

At present, the consensus on the third quarter is that there are still some inventory problems that need to be resolved. Competition will lead to a decline in price. The problem of excess supply is still uncertain. Maybe a rebound will occur in the fourth quarter? In Dr. Jiang's view, the future development prospects are still unclear, and it is difficult to make accurate predictions. Overall, the market will be "flat or slightly up" in 2022, but the packaging board will remain strong.

Therefore, it does not seem to be particularly friendly to the PCB market in 2022.

What is the situation of the supplier?

From the perspective of PCB equipment vendors and material vendors, in 2021, equipment suppliers benefited a lot from the capital expenditure of major PCB manufacturers, and many high -end equipment came from Europe. Dr. Jiang warned European PCB manufacturers: "Competition is more fierce, China is growing, expanding its market share, and continuously improving its technical capabilities."

For material suppliers, especially rigid layer pressure plate suppliers, 2021 is a good year. After the price of raw materials rose, the cost was successfully passed on to customers, while maintaining profit margins. The price of layers in 2022 will decline. Material suppliers in mainland China and Taiwan see that the local currency exchange of the US dollar depreciation will not only cause inventory -related issues, and will also reduce their income. Terminal customers with huge pricing resistance will pass pressure on the material dealer and obtain raw materials at lower prices.

In the end, Dr. Jiang concluded that after the strong development of 2021, 2022 was a striking year, and the industry faced many challenges. He listed some methods to maintain the relative stability of enterprise management and strive to find the best solution at the same time to respond to market challenges.