Global And China PCBs Industry Status And 2023 Industry Outlook
Jan 10, 2023
On January 6, 2023, Dr. Jiang Xugao of Prismark published a keynote report entitled "Global PCB Status in 2022 and Review of PCB Status in Mainland China and Industry Outlook in 2023". Forecast the industry development trend of the year. The report is full of dry goods, and the participants benefited a lot.
The Prismark report pointed out that in 2022, the demand in the global electronic complete machine market will further decline, and the demand in the PC, mobile phone and TV markets, as well as the automotive industry will continue to be weak. End customers adjust inventory and reduce supply chains, which have an impact on the PCB industry, and the growth of the PCB market is almost entirely driven by packaging substrates. It is predicted that the global PCB growth rate will be 2.9% in 2022, and the growth rate of PCB output value in mainland China will slow down.
From the market application point of view, in 2022, PCB demand for PCs, TVs, games and consumer electronics products will generally be weak. High inventories and weak demand hurt most segments, especially in the second half of the year. Although the high-speed growth in 2021 continued at the beginning of 2022, it has decelerated rapidly since the end of the second quarter. In 2022, PCBs such as servers, new energy vehicles, and Apple's supply chain will perform well. In addition, the packaging substrate (especially FCBGA) market was very strong in the first half of 2022, and demand began to slow down in the second half of the year.
From the perspective of product categories, the packaging substrate market will grow by about 23% in 2022: advanced FCBGA substrates and other products drive the market to continue to grow, and the application fields of SiP and module substrates will further expand. HDI growth of about 2%: Non-consumer applications drive HDI demand, such as automotive, high-performance computers, high-speed networks and satellite communications. The multi-layer board market fell by about 4%: data centers and infrastructure require more advanced low-loss multi-layer boards to achieve faster data rates; the automotive market requires more reliable high-current and high-heat circuit boards. The FPC market grew about 3%, mainly driven by automotive and professional applications.
The Prismark report predicts that 2023 will be a difficult year for the PCB industry. Economists predict a recession in 2023. Inflation, the Ukraine war, and the European energy crisis may continue. Weak demand and high inventories will continue to affect the global economy at least in the first half of 2023. In terms of the electronic market, it is expected that NB and PC will further decline by 5% or more; the server market will grow at a low single digit of about 3%; the mobile phone market may remain flat. Shipments from Chinese smartphone suppliers may grow slightly. Apple's smartphone sales range may remain at ±3%.
Prismark predicts that the PCB market will decline by 2% in 2023. Specifically, the packaging substrate market may grow steadily; the single and double panels will drop by 5%; the growth rate of MLB and FPC will be -2%~3%; HDI will drop by 1%. If there is a recession in the second half of 2023, the PCB market may be even worse, with a growth rate of -5% or lower.
In terms of regional development trends in the circuit board manufacturing industry, some multinational PCB/package substrate companies have announced that they will invest in new factories in Malaysia, Vietnam or Thailand. These investments will change the PCB production landscape in the future, especially after 2025. This is something that needs attention.
But so far, from the perspective of comprehensive and effective PCB industry infrastructure investment facilities, competitive (low) production costs, per capita output value, sufficient labor and talent reserves, and experienced operators and engineers, China is still It is the most cost-competitive PCB production base. Southeast Asia may have substitution and absorption in some products, but most circuit boards may still be made in China.
