The Shortage Of FC-BGA Package Substrate Is Greatly Alleviated

Since 2020, due to the rapid outbreak of packaging and testing market demand, its upstream materials have fallen into a state of shortage. Among them, packaging substrates are the most in short supply of all packaging and testing upstream materials, including Intel, AMD, ASE, and Ankor, all of which have stated that their capacity release is limited by the supply of packaging substrates.

During the most serious shortage of packaging substrates, the delivery time of packaging and testing manufacturers to downstream customers was more than one year, and some small CPU customers could not get production capacity at all.

Today, as the market for packaging and testing continues to decline, the shortage of orders is also being transmitted upstream. At the same time, the expansion of production capacity of major packaging substrate manufacturers has also been launched one after another. The shortage of supply in the packaging substrate industry has been greatly alleviated. Conventional BT substrate products have even entered the stage of oversupply, and the price cut to grab orders may be triggered.

At present, FC-CSP substrate products using BT materials have fallen into a situation of oversupply, and the shortage of FC-BGA substrate products using ABF materials has also been greatly alleviated, but a small range of shortages still exists.

Shennan Circuit, a leading domestic packaging substrate company, also stated in its 2022 semi-annual report that during the reporting period, the growth of the global semiconductor downstream market has diverged. Affected by this, the overall supply and demand relationship of packaging substrates also returned to normal.

Nandian said at the recent legal conference that due to the slowdown in consumer electronics demand and the continuous opening of new production capacity, which caused pressure to cut prices and grab orders, the price competition in the BT carrier board market was indeed fierce in the second half of the year.

Jingshuo also said that in the long run, the shortage of ABF substrates will gradually narrow. The overall BT substrate industry is in a state of oversupply, but it will fluctuate seasonally. If the Chinese mobile phone market or consumer electronics demand rebounds, BT substrates The supply and demand situation will improve.

Based on the supply chain survey and the latest data, Morgan Stanley believes that starting from Q4 this year, it is unlikely that the price will rise. The ABF substrate market will experience an oversupply from 2022 to 2025, with an oversupply of about 1% in 2022, expanding to 3% in 2025.